Liberty Holds Off Rushing Runnin' Bulldogs in Nail-Biter

The Liberty Flames survived a scare to defeat the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 24 to 23 in a game that defied early expectations of a routine home victory. While the final result confirmed Liberty as the winner, the razor-thin margin belied the high confidence placed in the pre-game forecast, revealing a contest far more competitive than analysts anticipated.

Before kickoff, the analytical case rested on Liberty’s massive historical advantages and an efficient quarterback debut, projecting an 86.5 percent chance of victory. The contrarian narrative warned of an upset driven by Gardner-Webb’s top-ranked rushing attack controlling time of possession, but the overwhelming weight of the data suggested the Flames would easily overpower the FCS opponent despite recent coaching turmoil.

In reality, Gardner-Webb nearly pulled off the upset, accumulating more total yards, rushing attempts, and time of possession than their heavier-favored counterpart. The game’s outcome hinged not on Liberty’s dominant narrative but on a fortuitous late 54-yard touchdown pass from backup quarterback Jaylen Henderson, after starter Deshawn Purdie struggled under pressure. The forecast correctly identified the winner but significantly overestimated Liberty’s dominance, missing how effectively Gardner-Webb’s ground game kept them within striking distance until the final moments.